Audubon report on birds & climate change
By Ilana DeBare
As wildlife lovers, as Bay Area residents, as supporters of Golden Gate Bird Alliance, we already know that climate change means trouble for birds.
But as of this week, we suddenly know a lot more about how bad that trouble will be — and which species will be at greatest peril.
National Audubon Society just released a report on North American birds and climate change that reaches the mind-boggling conclusion that nearly HALF the bird species of North America are at risk.
Of 588 species included in the study, 314 face a severe threat to their survival. Of those, 126 species are at risk of severe population declines by 2050, and another 188 species face the same by 2080 if climate change continues on its current path.
The list of Bay Area birds facing climate trouble includes some species like Snowy Plovers and Least Terns that are already on endangered/threatened lists for reasons such as habitat loss.
But it also includes many local species that seem common — even plentiful — today, such as American Avocets, Allen’s Hummingbirds, and Common Loons.
Bay Area species at greatest risk
Among the Bay Area species we know and love that are at most serious risk due to climate change are:
- Shorebirds. This includes local nesting species such as Black Oystercatchers and American Avocets, along with wintering species such as Marbled Godwits, Long-Billed Curlews, Short-Billed Dowitchers, and even the familiar Willet of our San Francisco Bay shoreline.
- Pelicans. Both Brown and American White Pelican populations are imperiled by climate change.
- Waterfowl. Familiar wintering ducks at risk include Barrow’s Goldeneye, Greater Scaup, Cinnamon Teal, American Wigeon, and even — amazingly — the ubiquitous Mallard, which could see its summer breeding territory shift far north.
- Grebes. Four of the five grebes that winter in our immediate area are at risk: Clarks and Western Grebes, as well as Eared and Horned Grebes.
- Raptors & Owls: American Kestrels, Golden and Bald Eagles, Swainson’s Hawks, Northern Harriers, Short-Eared Owls, and Burrowing Owls are among the raptors at risk.
- Gulls. Our ubiquitous California and Western Gulls face trouble, as do Ring-billed Gulls.
- Passerines and hummingbirds. Our Rufous and Allen’s Hummingbirds are at serious risk, along with Vaux’s Swifts, Brown Creepers, and Pygmy Nuthatches.
And that’s just naming a few.
“The greatest threat our birds face today is global warming,” said Audubon Chief Scientist Gary Langham, who will be the guest speaker at our monthly Speaker Series on Thursday September 18 in San Francisco. “Global warming threatens the basic fabric of life on which birds — and the rest of us — depend. We have to act quickly and decisively to avoid catastrophe for them and us.”
The above list of at-risk species is by no means complete. It just gives you a taste. Over the coming months, as we have time to wade through the voluminous data from National Audubon, we will share more of the details of NAS’s projections.
For now, here’s some background on the report and some suggestions for how we can respond.
Rigorous science based on CBC data
The study — being released in peer-reviewed journals — was seven years in the making. It is not off-the-cuff guesswork or fear-mongering; it is extremely rigorous, conservative science.
It’s based on over 40 years of bird population data from Audubon Christmas Bird Counts (winter populations) and U.S. Geological Survey Breeding Bird Surveys (summer populations), combined with climate analysis from leading climatologists.
Audubon scientists considered not just changes in temperature but other climate-related factors such as water availability. They looked at how today’s livable winter and summer habitat for each species might change under a range of climate assumptions.
Many birds will be able to adapt and colonize new areas that meet their needs for food and habitat. Great-tailed Grackles, for instance, are already starting to move north into Northern California. Some birds may even see their livable range expand.
But many birds will not be so lucky. One out of five species will lose more than half their current range by 2050, without the possibility of making that up. For instance, the Trumpeter Swan and Brown-headed Nuthatch could lose more than 99 percent of their current range.
Based on climate projections, National Audubon classified all 588 species as either:
- Stable (like the Great-Tailed Grackle),
- Endangered (will lose at least 50 percent of their current habitat range), or
- Threatened (will lose at least 50 percent of their range but may be able to make up some of that loss in new areas).
The species on the very short list above are all in NAS’s “endangered” category — facing the loss of at least 50 percent of their nationwide winter range, summer range, or both.
So how should we respond?
Two-pronged response
National Audubon is asking us to take a broad two-pronged approach:
- Limit the severity of climate change by reducing the greenhouse gases that cause global warming.
- Help birds adapt to climate change by protecting the habitat they will need in the future, along with the habitat they need today.
For reducing greenhouse gases, there will need to be both big political steps and small individual steps such as driving less, becoming more energy-efficient etc.
When it comes to ensuring adequate habitat, Audubon will be strengthening its Important Bird Areas (IBA) program to take into account the future climate-related needs of birds as well as their current needs. Together with GGBA and other local chapters, Audubon California will identify key species which need the most help and for which we can have the greatest impact.
The details are still to come. We’ll keep you posted.
For a start, join us at our September 18 speaker event featuring Audubon Chief Scientist Gary Langham.
You can also read more about NAS’s climate report on their web site: climate.audubon.org, which includes predictions and range maps for all the species in the study. Or click here to read the New York Times story on the report.
Share this blog post or the NAS report web site with your friends and family.
Then, to make an ongoing difference, get involved with our San Francisco, East Bay or Alameda conservation committees.
Yes, fighting climate change has been on the agenda for a long time, at least here in the liberal Bay Area. But this NAS report has the potential to make the tragic results of climate change real and immediate to bird lovers throughout the United States, including those in more conservative areas.
Perhaps it will be the boost we need to move our society from arguing to acting.